RAIKO

RAIKO re-entry prediction

About RAIKO still alive among FITSAT-1, F-1, RAIKO, TechEdSat, WE_WISH deployed from ISS
on 4 Oct 2012, I JE9PEL try to calculate the altitude from the earth and Atmospheric re-
entry prediction. According to RAIKO-Twitter below, it plan to conduct the sail deployment
on 24 July 2013 that is forecasted to reach 300km altitude. They say that it will re-entry
within 4 days after the sail of the satellite was deployed. I try to calculate the normal
re-entry prediction when the sail of the satellite does not deploy.

https://twitter.com/raiko_cubesat
http://www.astro.mech.tohoku.ac.jp/RAIKO/
http://www.ne.jp/asahi/hamradio/je9pel/iss_kibo.htm


(1) Download 'satrange.zip' to calculate the hight from the earth.
    http://www.ne.jp/asahi/hamradio/je9pel/satrange.zip

(2) Request the past orbital element of the satellite to NORAD.
    http://www.celestrak.com/NORAD/archives/request.asp
    (Catalog Number of RAIKO is 38852.)

    The zip file as follows will be sent by an email about one hours later.

    =====================================================================
      38852 1998-067CN  RAIKO                                            
      Launched: 1998-11-20 (324)           Start Date: 2013-05-06 (126)  
       Decayed:                             Stop Date: 2013-07-06 (187)  
    =====================================================================
    1 38852U 98067CN  13126.53116022  .00099264  00000-0  76935-3 0  2164
    2 38852  51.6388 302.7207 0013787 220.5249 139.4724 15.70918248 33304
    1 38852U 98067CN  13127.54891919  .00093114  00000-0  71605-3 0  2179
    2 38852  51.6388 297.5171 0013681 225.4629 134.5252 15.71133823 33462
    1 38852U 98067CN  13127.86693917  .00097855  00000-0  74969-3 0  2185
    2 38852  51.6389 295.8909 0013617 227.2235 132.7619 15.71203413 33511
    1 38852U 98067CN  13129.13888732  .00091532  00000-0  69442-3 0  2195
    2 38852  51.6389 289.3851 0013584 233.6243 126.3503 15.71464238 33715
    1 38852U 98067CN  13130.15629713  .00090696  00000-0  68252-3 0  2201
    2 38852  51.6387 284.1794 0013508 238.8765 121.0908 15.71661862 33874
    еееее

(3) Input the value of "Eccentricity" and "Mean Motion" into the cells of "satrange.xls".
    And input 128 in 'MA' because it is approximately the circular orbit satellite.

(4) Calculate the date of TLE based on the "Julian Day and Epoch Time" which JE9PEL wrote.
    http://www.asahi-net.or.jp/~ei7m-wkt/numbr802.htm (Japanese)

(5) Excel - Graph - "Add Trendline" - Options - Forecast

    

(6) Change the color of the original polyline and the approximate curve in Excel graph.

(7) According to the figure below I have calculated, the altitude from the surface of
    the satellite will be 300km on July 11, and it will be 200km on August 28, 2013.
    (When I recalculated the last TLE, it's predicted to re-entry on August 6, 2013.)