| 4．Changes since the 2010s |
Here, we summarize our findings. We have investigated the population change in urban areas by adding the WGS-based data for 2015 and 2020 to the former research data based on mdbUA2010. This process has clarified that cities in Japan have been in a phase of population decline since 2010.
First, an overview of the 118 cities as a whole: Almost half of the cities that experienced continuous population growth and were categorized as Expanded Cities in the former project have shown population stagnation. Similarly, around one-third of the cities previously classified as Sustainable/Stable Cities that maintained their populations have a trend of population decline. These findings infer that nearly half of the cities with once stable or expanding populations have experienced shifting to stagnant or declining population trends.
It also should be noted that the number of urban areas shifting toward stagnating populations has more than doubled since the former research results. Many are located around the greater metropolitan areas. The Kanto and Kansai regions have many cities with this characteristic, whereas the urban areas around Nagoya and Fukuoka have relatively few. This contrast might be due to the difference in the growth potential of each metropolitan area.
Meanwhile, most cities with decreasing populations have maintained their previous trends, and some with stable populations have reduced their populations. Overall, the number of urban areas with declining populations has increased.
A few urban areas show unusual trends that differ from the general pattern of population stagnation or decline in Japan. The five urban areas of Takasaki, Yotsukaichi, Kurume, Miyazaki, and Okinawa have maintained their population size stably and have increased it since 2010. Toyama has gradually increased its population, turning from its decline, and Tottori has been extricating itself from its population decline.
| 5. Current Situation and Challenges facing Urban Cities in Japan under the Decline in Population |
Above, we describe our research findings by analyzing the new data set: namely, the former data using mdbUA2010 plus the WGS-based data for 2015 and 2020. They indicate the current situation of the cities in Japan under population decline.
There is no doubt that many cities have been in the phase of declining or stagnant population. Almost half the cities with previously expanding populations have already entered the stagnating population phases. The number of Converted Stagnant Cities has more than doubled compared to our previous research results. The finding that they are mostly cities in the Kanto and Kansai regions suggests that population growth in both areas has slowed.
Compared to those two regions, the metropolitan areas around Nagoya and Fukuoka have maintained comparatively better conditions terms of population. Some notable cities include those previously recognized as Sustainable/Stable but that have begun to increase their population, as well as exceptional cases that recuperated their population after it decreased.
The following issues would raise two points: whether the stagnation of cities around metropolitan areas signifies the growth potential of those areas is slowing down and why some cities have recuperated their population. These inquiries will shed light on the future of cities in Japan during the declining population phase.
Prof. Kazushi Tamano
2-11 Wakaba Mihama-ku
Chiba-City, Chiba, Japan 261-8586
(The Open University of Japan)
tamano＠k.email.ne.jp