意思決定の方法

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If you have ever struggled with a difficult decision − new job vs. new boyfriend, sports car vs. minivan, read the book vs. see the movie − you have likely also been offered a heap of decision-making wisdom. Make a list of pros and cons. Go with your gut. Sleep on it. It was this last bit of advice − sleep on it − espoused in a paper by Dutch researchers and published in the journal Science in 2006, that really irked Ben Newell, a researcher himself at the University of New South Wales in Australia. That paper suggested that people might be better off relying on unconscious deliberation to make complex decisions − despite an abundance of scientific evidence to the contrary − given that the human brain can reasonably only focus on a few things at a time. Once people have all the necessary information to make a decision, the paper found, too much conscious deliberation could lead to unnecessary attention given to extraneous factors.

go with one's gut feeling:勘で決める,勘に従う sleep on:一晩寝てから結論を出す espouse:支持する irk:うんざりさせる better off doing:〜した方がいい deliberation:熟考 to the contrary:それと反対に extraneous factor:背景因子,無関係な要因 意思決定の方法はさまざまある。プラス面とマイナス面のリストを作るか、勘に頼るか、一晩寝かすか。 Benは「一晩寝かす」のがベターであるという考えにカチンときたわけですね。ここでいうsleep on itはしっかり考えて一晩寝かし、というのではなく、「厄介な判断は無意識に任せて」というぐらいでしょう。必要な情報を得てあまり考えすぎると、ささいな要素に必要以上に注意が向くので要注意、ということです。

Of course, not every decision requires you to write a dissertation about its options. Making a gut decision is a perfectly respectable way to, say, choose your lunch. There are other decisions, however, that feel like gut decisions − ones we make quickly and without much apparent conscious thought − that may involve more higher-order thinking, or experience, than we realize. Newell offers the example of a doctor he knows, who insists he can make patients' diagnoses based on gut decisions. "But that doctor has 20 to 30 years of experience, and has in the past employed deliberate decision-making. So maybe over time, these decisions become automated," says Newell. "Going with your 'gut' may be right when you're an expert. For example, maybe choosing lunch every day is easy because we do it every day. But we don't move every day, so when making a choice about where to live, we have no expertise." "All I'm saying is if you've got a tough decision, thinking about it is better than hoping some magical unconscious thing will solve it for you," he says. Newell himself has to make a big decision now − choosing a place for his family to live. He's already made his list of pros and cons.

最後の2段落 dissertation:学位論文 diagnoses:診断(diagnosisの複数) deliberate:よく考えた 勘で意思決定することは可能だが、それは専門家なら、長年の経験からほぼ自動的に意思決定ができるということで、得意分野でもないところでは無理。 結論としては、無意識というわからないがゆえの領域に、魔法があるかのように考えるよりは、しっかりと考える方がよい、という、しごく当然の結論が出ました。 意思決定の方法はさまざまある。プラス面とマイナス面のリストを作るか、勘に頼るか、一晩寝かすか。 Benは「一晩寝かす」のがベターであるという考えにカチンときたわけですね。ここでいうsleep on itはしっかり考えて一晩寝かし、というのではなく、「厄介な判断は無意識に任せて」というぐらいでしょう。必要な情報を得てあまり考えすぎると、ささいな要素に必要以上に注意が向くので要注意、ということです。