Predicting the Habitat of Great Tits (Parus major) in a Large City Using a Logistic Regression Model
Hiroshi HASHIMOTO, Yosihiro NATUHARA
Summary: We created habitat models for Great Tits, (Parus major) in urban parks of Osaka,
Japan. A survey of the presence of Great Tits was conducted in 85 parks during the breeding season
(April - July) of 2000. The following variables were measured to model the habitat of Great Tits
by a logistic regression model with GIS: park properties (area, perimeter, shape, age, distance
to nearest mountains, distance to the nearest 10ha forest), area of tree cover (within and
surrounding parks) and proportion of surrounding land use types. Surrounding environmental
variables were measured by two methods, (a) 5 types (0, 50, 100, 150, 200m) of buffer zones
from park border, and (b) 4 types (radius of 50, 100, 150, 200m) of circles from the park
centre. From the two models obtained, one model suggests that tree area in a park and its 50m
buffer zone affects positively the habitat quality of Great Tits, and round shaped parks are
better. The other model shows that tree area within a radius of 200m from the centre of a park
has a positive effect on the occurrence of Great Tits. From the latter model, about 4.0ha (32%)
of tree area is required in a radius of 200m to achieve a probability of above 0.5 for occurrence
of Great Tits. These models will support urban greenery planning for birds.
H. Hashimoto and Y. Natuhara (2002) Predicting the Habitat for Great Tits Parus major in a Large City Using a Logistic Regression Model. Journal of The Japanese Institute of Landscape Architecture 65: 539-642 (in Japanese with English summary)